Who actually pays for Russia's war

Incidence Notes is the working companion to Incidence, a quantitative panel on the fiscal and military limits of Russia’s war of attrition, published at incidence.world in English, Ukrainian and Russian.

The panel asks one question: after all transfers, who actually bears the cost. It answers with ordinal ladders anchored to observable administrative actions, confidence ratings, explicit falsification conditions and dated checks. Findings that cut against the thesis are published first.

What arrives here: panel revisions, verification of forecasts whose check dates have come due, short memos on a single mechanism, pointers to work published elsewhere. No paywall, now or later.

Written by Dmytro Voronenko, PhD — independent researcher, Singapore. Background in banking, trading, energy and applied social research.

Panel: incidence.world · ORCID 0009-0003-5118-302X · CC BY 4.0 · DOI 10.5281/zenodo.22068421