How long can Russia endure its war? The panel at incidence.world answers with money: ₽16.9 trn (42%) above revenue in 2026, ₽23 trn (56%) in 2027. Its new companion, the Breaking Point 2027 model, shows what drives Russian inflation in 2027, where it stops being manageable and when money printing stops paying for the war. It runs in the browser, in English, Ukrainian and Russian, and every setting can be changed.
How it works
The starting point is the panel’s estimate of new bank money for the state perimeter in 2027: ₽17.7 trn. The model passes it into prices and then adds what accelerates the pass-through: depositors and companies leaving the ruble, the budget’s vicious cycles, Ukrainian strikes, and events that undermine trust. Behind all of it sits an overhang of about ₽38 trn: money accumulated above the pre-war norm. While the ruble is trusted it stays in accounts. When trust goes, it goes into goods and foreign currency.
The result is read on the same rungs as the panel’s inflation widget, measured by perceived inflation (InFOM surveys): up to 18% is war normal; 18 to 25% a gallop, when the regime has to reopen the budget; 25 to 35% the turning point; 35 to 50% the reckoning; above 50% runaway.
What do the scenarios show?
Perceived inflation in December 2027:
Favourable conditions for the Kremlin: 20% (range 18–24%)
Another spending cut: 26% (range 19–43%)
Continued quiet squeezing (base): 34% (range 22–48%)
A series of crisis measures and failures: 35% (range 22–48%)
A blow to depositor trust: 37% (range 22–48%)
Holding prices by decree: 39% (range 23–68%)
Four things stand out.
1. Even the base case reaches the turning point. If the Kremlin keeps doing what it does now, the 25% rung is crossed in July 2027 and the trajectory reaches the reckoning in January 2028.
2. Price freezes make it worse. Holding prices by decree hides inflation behind shortages for a while; it accumulates and comes out later. It gives the worst central figure and the widest range, up to 68%.
3. Strikes matter most. With stronger Ukrainian strikes, December inflation is 41.8%, the turning point comes in May and the reckoning in October 2027.
4. The external levers barely move it. A maritime services ban, secondary tariffs or a lower oil price change December inflation by tenths of a point under the base settings (34.4 to 34.8%).
Only conditions favourable to the Kremlin keep inflation near 20% through 2027.
Think a setting is wrong?
These are scenarios, not a forecast of dates. The model shows where each path leads under stated assumptions, and lets you change them: printing, growth, the key rate, the current account, the strength of each layer. See the 2027 scenarios or test your own by changing the parameters.